>> schieffer: welcome back to "face the nation." for in in-depth analysis we will turn to our second panel. these are pollsters and political experts. leslie sanchez is a republican strategist. she runs the impacto group. stu rothenberg is one of the most respected political analysts in the land. he puts out the rothenberg political reports. anthony salvanto is the cbs news political director. he's the director of elections. anna greenberg is a senior vice president of the democratic polling firm greenberg, quinlan, and roster upon and last but not least our old friend larry sabato, the political guru of the university of virginia center for politics. stewart, let me talk to you. and you i talked last week. >> we did. >> schieffer: you said, don't look at me. i have no idea who is going to win. and this is what you do for a living. right now, how do you think this thing is breaking on this last

weekend? >> i think the popular vote looks even or close to even, bob. i think anybody would be crazy to confidently predict how that's going to go. i still think the electoral college is easier for the president to get to 270. it's not impossible for governor romney, but all the pieces have to fit together for him. there are a number of must-win states so it's more difficult. >> schieffer: talk a little bit about that. why? >> when you look at the differences between the national polling and state polling, it's remarkable. republicans have some problems with the state numbers. they say most of the state polls are too democratic. the samples are too democratic. and in their heartes, truly believe that the romney folks and most republican strategists believe they have at least an even-money chance on this. but when you look at the dispassionate polls, the independent polls, the media polls, they seem to mirror the democratic numbers a bit more. so it's easier for the president. the president has a slight lead, apparently, possibly, in ohio. and then you look at the other states. they're either even or a slight advantage to the president. certainly the big states,

wisconsin, and ohio, maybe even virginia. it's harder for governor romney. but it's close enough that i think many of us are going to wait and see what-- how the vote counting goes. >> schieffer: anthony, you do all this work for cbs news. you're in charge of our poll and all of that. how do you see this thing breaking down? what do you, the closest of the battleground states are right now? >> certainly, certainly virginia is neck and neck. that's a toss-up. i think colorado is razor close. i think wisconsin is really close walz. you know, we talk a lot about ohio. it's obviously critical. but let's not forget somebody has to take two or three, i think, of those, also, to get over the top. you know, stewart said something interesting, too, that i want to pick up on about these polls-- because all of this is about those state polls. so much of the argument this year has been about the composition of the polls, which means the composition of the electorate. there are too many older folks, too many young, too many

democrates, too many republicans. but i think that tells you all of this comes down to turnout. the pollsters are trying to get a handle on-- everybody is trying to get a handle on who is actually going to show up? is this going to look demographically more like 2008 or 2004? that's what's going to decide this. franfrankly, there are very few, if any, undecided voters left. >> schieffer: larry, you're the world's foremost expert on virginia politics? >> there are three totals to. ups at my shop-- virginia, colorado, new hampshire. we called all the other states, and we think the president's likely to win with 277 to 303 electoral votes. but virginia is very, very close. and i think it's a lot closer than either side expected. and just to address what stu and anthony were saying, i have a lot of good contacts there, obviously. i've lived there all my life. and they really do believe what they're saying, and the republicans swear to me and

they've shared their numberes, romney is up a point or two in their tracking polls. the democrats are done the same thing. president obama is up a point or two in their polls. now, i don't think virginia's representative of the country. i do think the president has an edge in ohio. i expect him to win ohio. i expect him to win wisconsin, i think he's going to win iowa, and frankly, given democratic base in the other states, that's all she wrote. >> schieffer: let me go to you, lesley. i want to talk a little bit about pennsylvania. a lot of us were putting that pretty much in the democratic column a good way backs in this campaign, and now in the last week or so, you've seen the romney folks putting some money in there and saying they really think they have a chance. i'm not convinced whether they think they have a chance or whether they want us to think they have a chance. all of these things in pol tibs you always have to put it into context. what is the situation there? why are they putting this money in there? >> i would say the victory team and the romney team feel very

confident that they-- they understand a couple of things we've talked about here. yes, we're talking about pennsylvania, to your question. but looking at ohio and virginia, i think they're much more competitive. they're more competitive because you're look at the fact that governor romney has closed that gap postconvention. you're seeing a lot more independents move, and they have been since 2009 be but move over to the republican alternative. and this, again, comes down to being a referendum on the president. as much as everybody wants to break it down and look at polls and statistics and small percent annuals, individuals are deciding-- these swing voters-- do they want four more years? and i think consistently, they're showing that there's better alternatives for governor romney. >> schieffer: you really think you have a chance in pennsylvania? >> look, if you look at money, in terms of money and time, the most valuable resources, the republicans are putting significant dollars there. they're winding that upping it-- look where they're aiming, not only working class white, but suburban, suburban womens, and

the resources are there. the ground game's there. they're going to tell you there are 150,000 volunteers. they're doing significantly more in terms of direct voter contact. all of that makes a difference on election day. >> schieffer: anna, didn't david axelrod say he'd shave i had mustache if they lost pen pep. >> and a lot of others, too. >> schieffer: what do you think about it? >> i don't think they will win pennsylvania. i think they have money to burn. there is so much outside money the romney campaign is flush and i think they're making obama spend money there, but in particular, looking at the suburban voter voters in the philly suburbs and college women, that's an area where all of the issues are really problem atec for romney and the republicans. so not only do i think pennsylvania is pretty reliably blue. i also think they have extra problemes, if you will, in the suburban areas because they are so out of step on social issues with those voters. >> i'm really glad-- if you don't mind-- that you mention

that. the democrats have completely over-played their reach to women. not only did they patronize women by lobbying specifically at social issues, talking only about abortion and contraception. when you interview these women they are talking about a much broader sense of economic issues. will i have the financial security to take care of my aging parents? will my children be able to go to college as we planned? it is not this redefined sense of looking back to what women's issues are but looking forward because we are the bread winners. >> with all due respect, there is no data that supports that point. if you do polling and test the issues-- which i've done in many of the races i work in and many of the races i work in were doing things on tv and mail-- independent women are offended from everything from aikin to murdoch and it speaks directly to womenally economic stand. and i think you'll find at the end of the election, that issues didn't define the election, but for some voters, especially the independent women, who are the holy grail in this election, are

very important. >> let me get away from women-- not that i want to get away from women. what we saw in 2004 here, all three of these stase were really close. john kerry won between two and four percent annual points. they're competitive races. if we have a competitive race-- and we are-- it's not surprising these are real contests. the problem for the republicans is getting over that hump. yes, they can get to within two or three points in these states but winning them is awfully hard. are you really going to tell me-- lesley, maybe you will-- that mitt romney is going to win pennsylvania but have a hard to winning ohio, and colorado. >> to the point of pennsylvania, i think it's a much more difficult task, there's no doubt. let's just say the scenario conceding that, new hampshire, give iowa, wisconsin, minnesota, the competitive battleground the republicans are looking at, at the top, ohio and virginia. because-- >> schieffer: larry, talk a

little bit. it's your job, you figured it all out-- >> no, we haven't figured it out. we guessed. we guessed to this point, bob. >> schieffer: i guess i have to ask the following-- ( laughter ) tell me what you found out. >> well, essentially, you know, we rely not just on polls but also the election models and punditzy that comes out of the political science-- stu you're a political scientist-- >> so is anne. >> that's right, anne is, too. the truth is, history matters enormally. look, you can see pennsylvania getting close. i can also see minnesota getting close. but i can't see the republican get the last one or two porsage points. yo percent points. you have to look at the history of the states. night poll way markin of error of three or four or 5% on any given day. there's more stability to this system than we're acknowledging. >> schieffer: you said in the

battlegrounds-- where do you see the battleground states? >> i see florida going to romney. although, i've got to say, romney is closer to losing florida than obama is close to losing ohio. now that tells you something. i think north carolina is romney's. i think, as i said, wis consin, ohio, and iowa are all going to go to obama. new hampshire is tight as a tick, it colorado is tight as a tick, nesad is obama's. and there we are. the rest aren't competitive. >> i would say this. as we look at this on election night early on, even if these states are close, even if obama wins a pennsylvania, minnesota, michigan, we may not know that right away because they're really close. i think they only break if there's a very giant wave, and frankly, none of us see that coming. >> schieffer: you think we're going to be there late. >> oh, yes. >. >> it depends what happens in florida. i think florida say toss-up, and if you look at the early vote, if if leans pretty heavily democratic and in a lot of the

states where obama is ahead by a point or two, the early vote is democratic. the republicans caught up, but it's still democratic leaning. >> schieffer: my sense is we'll be waiting to see what in fact naps nevada and especially in colorado. >> i agree with you. once we get ohio, once we know ohio, then we've got to look out west. they need something else to go over the top. but we'll also be there late because of the senate. i don't expect we'll know senate control until after we see north dakota, and montan as well. >> arizona. >> and arizona as well. we've got a late and i think exciting night ahead. but some of these, especially all of these states, too, that we've been talking about, their counts are going to come in over the course of a couple of hours. so we'll have some suspense building there. >> schieffer: let's take a little break here and we'll come back and talk about this some more. we'll be back in a minute.

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>> schieffer: this race has been close from the very beginning, but stu you saw a shift about a week ago. >> about a month ago, bob. right before the first presidential debate, it looked like when you fast forwarded a month it looked like we would be sitting here and know who was going to win. the first debate fundamentally altered the debate, fundamentally railed some questions with swing voteres, white working class. >> reporter:s about president, about his enthusiasm, energy. but also it changed the image and impression of mitt romney. suddenly he became not the ideologue but more the problem solver, the business guy. not simply the conservative tea party republican. most of us don't ever think he was a conservative tea party republican, but the democrats is that you image. and that debate i think fundamentally changed things. if you look at the most receipt polls in terms of image, mitt romney'mitt romney's favorable

is significantly up. a number of polls have him virtually even with the president. romney's reputation and his ability to alter the initial picture of him, the democrats ran, you know, ads over the summer and going right before the conventions, mitt romney doesn't care about you-- the debate changed everything. >> schieffer: so why is that, larry? >> well, it was because, i guess, what, a couple of hundred millions dollars was spent defining romney in negative terms, and people saw him up close, and said, "gee, he's not such a bad guy" so the real life contradicted the television advertising. but, bob, just to add a footnote here. i agree with what stu said about the first debate but i look in close races for last-minute trend that may lift one candidate a point, a critical point. what happened this last week? hurricane sandy lifted president obama because he was presidential and mitt romney was forced off the stage for three days. and the president donald a bullet on jobs on friday.

those two things combination i think pushed obama up and over the top in several of these very close states. >> schieffer: anna. >> first of all, mitt romney had to run as a right win party guy in the primary. it wasn't just democratic money. he defined himself that way and was republican program was as conservative as it's been. it wasn't just democratic money that created that image. i think though to follow up on larry's point, i think that the economy, people actually-- if you look at people's perception of the economy and the number of people who say it's getting better, worse, or the same, the better number has been going up. if you look at people's assessment of the economy, consumer confidence has been going up. this jobs report is not dodging a bullet. it's consistent with what most americans think about the economy. it's better. they don't think it's great. but we are in a much better place, even in the direction of the country. we have a majority of people saying the country is going in the wrong direction but it's

about 15 point down from 2010, 2008. i think the jobs report built a narrative that they feel the economy is getting better. >> schieffer: do you think the storm hit mitt romney, lesley? >> i think it-- it beved the-- benefitted the president. let's put it that way. i agree, he looked presidential governor christie looks good. the sad case is when you see true bipartisanship, people were skeptical. beam were like why are they work together? that's the way the country is supposed to work. i think it's mesh're america coming together for best interest of america. so very good. you know, now that you have the residual effect of the storm, the people anticipate the recovery is going to be more difficult. i agree with peggy noonan, that you're not going to know until later where the blame and such falls. to the point of the economy, i think it's very important-- there are some basic past statistices, important thing-- 1800 people a day are losing

their homes in foreclosures. you have these families very concerned about financial stability and taking care of their parentes, taking care of their children. these are the ones that are saying these are the policies of president obama that put us here. i like him personally but i don't necessarily agree he's going to be part of the solution and he has yet to offer one word of solice or solution that gives them that relief. that's why the momentum, i would do you mean with election of 2010, is with republicans, closing gap in colorado, in virginia, and in ohio. and that's what's tilting it. >> schieffer: anthony? >> on the point about the economy and bipartisanship, it's interesting. even on what might be objective facts, we see a partisan split. most democrats think the economy is doing okay. most republicans in polls say it's bad. they can't even agree on that. but it's also part of why this thing itself is so close to 50-50 today. when we look at the exit polls tuesday night and talk about views on the economy, remember, there's a lot of that partisan coloration in there, too. >> and i would simply add to that, i agree, entirely-- i

think we could have predicted this. i think most of us did expect this kind of election a year or two ago. why? without looking at the polls over the last six months. why? because the country is evenly decide dyed by republicans and democrats, liberals and conservatives, folks on the coast, and phobs in the middle. some of the people in the middle think like folks on the coast if you live in asheville, north carolina, or austin, texas. this is the country. >> schieffer: what about-- let's talk about the congress, the house and the senate. i think most people think the house is going to stay republican. 53 democrats in the senate now, 47 republicans. is that going to stay about same? >> yes. i think it's going to be almost exactly the same. which is amazing because the democrats have far more seats to defend than republicans do this year, and you had more democrats retiring. was in a great opportunity for republicans. if i had to guess, i would say democrats would end up with 52 or 53 seats. they have 53 now in house.

you're going to get about the same number of republicans you've got now. it relates to the 50-50 country. we could end up with a 50-50 nation and a status quo election with the incumbents essentially re-elected in all three parts of the federal government. >> schieffer: what's kind of interesting about that, i can't recall a time in my lifetime when the approval rating for the congress has been lower than it is. and yet we wind up with the same cast of cairns. characters? >> i think it's clear democrats blame republicans, republicans blame campaigns. everybody can agree they don't like congress, although congress' numbers are starting to inch up the past few weeks but still held in low reguard. but each guy is blame the other guy. i think larry is right. we're going to see little change in the house, the senate, we're anywhere from no change to republican game of two or three seats. and it's-- the senate is disappointing to the republicans. they're not going to win a seat in missouri they should have

won. they may lose a seat in indiana. >> redistricting had a lot to do with that, too, as you have written about so well. republicans consolidated their gains and democrats hung on to theirs and there aren't that many competitive districts in the. >> there are also some structural problems. in 2008, the seats the democrats won and then lost in 2010 are basically republican seats. i think the democrats will pick up two to four, maybe six seats tops. it's just going to be a long slog back to majority. >> schieffer: let's end this panel as i did the other one. i'll start with you guys here on the end. what will we be saying next week around this table and why will we say the person who won, won? >> that the momentum was definitely a part of the 2010 election. for republicans it was a continuation, 24 months later, moving to change the government. >> you know, it will be obama re-elected because of the economy and the status of women in society. >> schieffer: all right, that settles it.

it doesn't settle it. i'm told we have 30 seconds more. ( laughter ) >> oh, gosh! >> i think next week we'll be saying boy that was an awfully late night, bob. >> schieffer: larry. >> quickly? >> status quo election and we're faceag divide, tough government. >> divide government, and how are we going to it. >> schieffer: we'll be back with our "face the nation" flashback and it's a good won. stay with us. ,,,,,,,,,,

>> schieffer: uponning this could be one of the closest elections ever, and that it could come down to one state, may excite you, but it sends a shiver up the spine of those of us who were there election night 2000. we'll never forget that one and it's our "face the nation" flashback. we knew from the start it was a close one that probably hinged on florida. >> it's generally considered to be so close that it may be a long while before anybody's able to call it. >> schieffer: if only we had stopped there, but, no.

just before eight:00 all the new year's called florida for gore. >> abc news projects a al al gore wins the state of florida. >> cnn announces that we call florida in the al gore column. >> florida goes for al gore. >> schieffer: in a matter of hours, we all took that back and said florida was too close to call. >> you will have 30,000 absentee ballots that aren't going to be counted until tomorrow. >> schieffer: just after 2:00 a.m., we reversed our original call and said bush had won florida and was the next president of the united states. >> bush wins. >> schieffer: less than two hours later, we retracked that call and said the election was just too close to call. >> this is no longer an election. it is like "alice in wonderland." we get stranger and stranger as alice said, fiquote her correctly. >> she's as good a person to quote right now as anybody i

know. >> good evening. >> schieffer: so al gore won the popular vote but it would be well into december until the supreme court ruled that george bush had won displrd with it the presidenciy. >> i do solemnly swear... >> schieffer: our "face the nation" flashback. i'm a conservative investor. i invest in what i know. i turned 65 last week. i'm getting married. planning a life. there are risks, sure. but, there's no reward without it. i want to be prepared for the long haul. i see a world bursting with opportunities. india, china,

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>> schieffer: that's it for us today. we hope you join us tuesday night starting at 7:00 p.m. eastern for our cbs news

election night coverage. then we'll see you here next sunday on "face the nation," and find out how smart we all were, or not. captioning sponsored by cbs captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org ,,,,,,,,,,